Sunday, February 26, 2012

Order out of Chaos and Chaos out of Order

The problem is this consistent shift between enveloping mimetic layers that is the human progress. From dyad to monad to dyad to monad each layer more comprehensive containing the other but also dependent on its continued existence. The two forms of critical theory in competition for the heart of globalism is one that wishes to destroy the thin layer of monadic humanism bellow thinking to release capital over authority from current limitations to establish a new world order based on a projected dynamic corporatism and the other seeking to strengthen that humanistic layer synthesizing it with extended responsibilities to the biosphere in order to extend a governing civil society to include interconnectedness with ecological limits.

The first notion is ascendent and through finance is using the second notion as a means to paper over its end. It is because the spiritual commitment to humanity and the biosphere over finance through human solidarity and security that the second notion requires to succeed is not in place within its ranks. The result is that the ugly face of competition masks itself when necessary with the happy face of the Green since both when drunk with power can agree on one thing ... depopulation.

The ugly face of competition, when the time is right, has the means and power through finance, upon which the Green is dependent and still addicted, to throw him or her upon the bonfire of radical and quick depopulation which the Green in principle is not against. Through this critical lack of compassion and chink in the chain upon which human rights are dependent the Green can be outmaneuvered and piloted towards an end it basically agrees with through political means it otherwise does not but is too weak to stand against in the twisted hope to gain power in the catastrophic aftermath.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

I have been revising my opinions on the economy of late ...

I no longer agree with the deflationists that we will be just like Japan. That is to say in a condition of continued deflation which would be the result of keeping alive bankrupt (zombie) banks and corporations (though indeed there are already any number of zombie banks and corporations, to be sure, but our situation is different in kind from that of Japan in that the United States is capable of imperial action and foreign adventure and the Japaneses currently are not).

I also part with those predicting hyperinflation because I don’t believe Open Market Operations will have the inflationary impact they believe will occur. I say this because bank lending, the best tool for inflating money supply, will remain constrained and be a drag on the economy. This means I believe when the economy has gone into a double-dip decline between now and 2016 (or thereabouts, I have no crystal ball) the Fed will create ways to inflate using Open Market Operations that will be effective while government and business collude to create wars and an eventual green technologies bubble that should measure 27 trillion dollars when it goes bust. This is to say there are many tools at hand to keep the day of reckoning or any true democratic solution at bay.

This means hardship and increasing third world conditions in the United States for for everyone but the top 20% of our society and a kind of serfdom or corporate indenture existence for any individual within the top 20% who cannot integrate themselves into a global economy through a direct relationship with the financial markets.

Even I am amazed at how the ideas of Keynes and von Hayek are being so deftly used in concert to social engineer events so that majority will vote against their own interests within the domestic two party system. Unless you have 5 million dollars in liquidity your short and long term interests as citizen are not included on the bargaining table except as disposable collateral marketing pieces of a rhetorical nature meant to garner your vote and ratification for your current increasing marginalization and economic (and therefore political) demise.

There will be protest like in Wisconsin and the Occupy Movement, and there may be sporadic incidence of riots, but nothing that will not or cannot be contained. I see no mass action on the part of labor which will be content to be the ATM machine of the democratic party hoping to live off the scraps of access. There is still too much wealth to be squandered and only people who who can't feed themselves revolt. Access to bread and circuses even for the most squalid will continued to be provided in one form or another.

The noise you think is a bang is actually a whimper. Still if you are a humanist, if ever there was a time to live for future memory, now is that time in accordance with your highest ideals with courage to confront coupled with realistic acceptance of your basest impulses and drives. In a sentence … work on your soul and find a way to serve others.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Curbing My Enthusiasm Over The S&P 500

Last week I found myself enthusiastic for the potential of a new bull market.  However the week has sobered my assessment.  While there are plenty of technical indications for confidence in a bull market, economics, market psychology, and behavioral finance tell us another story.   Technical indicators as well as actual price of the S&P 500 index are excellent indication of social mood and analysis suggests to us that euphoria has taken market participants into a dangerous herding formation.  A formation I myself fell under for the last week until again recovering my individuality and reason.  One must take a broader view of this market and be willing to recognize the distinct probability that we are topping out and that the next leg is one of decline.  Indeed contrarian indications are so pronounced we must step aside from the herd and announce our bearishness.  We are suggesting caution informed by realistic pessimism.

A sobering warning comes from Laurence D. Fink, chief executive of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, urging investors earlier last week in Hong Kong to “be 100 percent in equities.” He later said in Beijing his call was aimed at getting cash back into the capital markets. One can hear his unspoken concerns that this bull rally in a bear market has exhausted itself without new infusions of capital.  Panic masked by enthusiasm are illustrative and indicative of impending turns of fortune.

I believe that the problems demonstrated in Greece specifically and the Eurozone in general are systemic and will continue to unravel.  Capital will pour into US Treasuries and United States stock market, but that will only bring immediate attention into the systemic problems of our economy now being overlooked, causing a failure in confidence.  Currently I don't see a bottom in the market before 2016 or thereabouts and I believe (with horrible consequence) war with Iran in some form or another will be the sign that the bottom is in place.  Subsequently I favor trading over investing believing that in short term that would be the best place to apply enthusiasm garnered by technical indicators as any further gains in this market I suspect will be short lived.